June 1994

After 30 years of being the front line troops in the celebrated "War on Drugs," many law enforcement officers find themselves tired, tense, frustrated and no closer to a solution, or a victory, than when the epidemic of drug abuse began in the early 1960s. Drug use, attendant violent crime and conditions that spawn crime are, in fact, worse than any time in recent history. I only wish I could say to the troops: "Hold the line a bit longer, things will get better soon." That is wishful thinking. In the next few years, the United States will begin to reap the consequences of ignoring the social, economic and cultural forces that affect many people in our large metropolitan cities, suburbs and poor rural areas.

These unattended problems, ranging from education to housing, have generated powerful interrelated forces. They have become the causative factors of criminal behavior including most forms of violent crime. It is prudent to recognize the existence of these problems and the potential that they will converge into one or two larger issues. We must recognize that the police cannot do much to alleviate the problems of the single-parent family, unemployment, drug abuse, or violent behavior. As these problems continue it will be extremely difficult to forestall or divert inevitable individual and group convulsions. Law enforcement will be fortunate if they merely contain the problems. Even then, in terms of loss of property, lives and damage to the sense of community the costs will be high.

Our society's difficult times will not last long, perhaps 20 years. The corrective processes, some of which have begun, will begin to reverse the conditions that have become the breeding grounds for our present and future problems.

The United States is awash in violent crime so it continues as a hot political issue. Although the number of crime-prone youth has fallen in the past decade, levels of violent crime have risen. Marvin Wolfgang first noted this trend in his studies of youth cohorts in Pennsylvania. He said youths were becoming more disposed to violence than any other cohorts he had studied. He correctly predicted that despite a significantly lower number of crime-prone youth in the 1980s and 1990s the level of crime associated with youth might not fall, and that violent crime might well increase.

Violent-minded youths, individuals affected by drugs, the inherent violence of drug distribution networks, mindless youth gangs, and an increase in the number of others prone to violence; combined to produce record levels of homicide in 22 metropolitan cities (and countless other smaller cities as well) in 1993.

Daily miracles in this nation's hospital emergency rooms are saving a large number of shooting victims. This happens even though recent violent criminals are safely tucked away in prisons. Countless proactive programs to prevent violence are in place and seeming to work well. It is obvious at this time in our history that people for several dimly understood reasons, are resorting to violence -- more often than not because their dysfunctional minds cannot figure another way to solve the problems they encounter.

Most conditions that spawn violent crime are not getting any better in the United States and conditions are becoming even more serious. It is inevitable violent crime will continue to be a problem for the next few years. The primary causes of violent crime are extreme poverty and unemployment, the use of illicit drugs, single parent families and the fierce competition among gangs.

The failure of families, churches and schools to provide a basic education to the young as well as the powerful influence of the media on individuals who are not capable of distinguishing right from wrong (or reality from fiction), are also at the root of violent behaviors.

There also are people who are born with violent tendencies. For this small percentage of our population incarceration is the only solution.

Solutions to the other problems are, at best, just on the drawing board. Our government struggles to find money to repair the critical infrastructure of our cities, provide decent housing, quality schools and welfare assistance. It is not an exaggeration to say that nothing of significance has been done recently by the government, schools, religious institutions, industry or average citizens to alleviate the root causes violence and crime.

Why should one expect the problem of violence to go away in the next few years? Demographically, the number of crime-prone youths are again on the rise and will peak shortly after the turn of the century. Historically, we should expect the general crime rate to increase and it follows that crimes of violence will rise as well.

The criminal justice system in the United States consists of the police, courts, prisons as well as probation and parole. Most observers agree that the entire criminal justice system is under extreme stress and not operating as designed or intended. While the system will not fail in the next few years, the trust the public has placed in the system will continue to erode. A few troubling problems are the overuse of plea bargaining to keep the courts (barely) efficient,the misuse of probation and parole to make room for new prisoners, and the police abandonment of activity in certain parts of the urban environment.

The manifestation of the lack of public trust and confidence in the criminal justice system can be found across the United States. For example, the public is buying an inordinate number of handguns for self-protection; there are frequent calls for the abolishment of probation and parole; and there is an increase in the number of private security forces throughout the country. Unless the problems with each segment of the "system" are addressed confidence and trust will continue to erode. At some point within a decade or so, the public may begin to abandon its commitment to the rule of law and begin the search for some force, governmental or not, that will protect them. We must avoid this solution at all costs if we are to remain a free nation!

For more than 200 hundred years we have struggled to protect ourselves against external forces. We are now in an era where the enemy is internal. The enemy is not only the violent criminal, but all of us who think violence is the simple way to solve problems. It will be an extraordinary time to be a police officer. The stakes for all of us are very high!

Except for the 1993 Los Angeles riots and the disturbances that followed in a number of other American cities, most of our urban areas have been relatively free of social unrest for 30 years. Riots are, however, the most chilling scenario police planners struggle with daily. Civil disturbances are alarming because the potential for widespread destruction is great in the modern urban environment. Besides the great loss of property by fire, consider the delicacy of the infrastructure of bridges, power grids, communication networks and the basic systems of water and sewer. In a very real sense any large city is extremely dependent on systems that are quite visible, vulnerable and easy to disable or destroy.

Social unrest is difficult to predict because it is dependent on a host of variables. If they converge at a particular moment, they result in a civil disturbance. Change the temperature, the time of day, the presence or absence of television cameras, or the visibility of large numbers police and the disturbance fades away. On the other hand, who would have predicted the extensive disturbances following the victory in a sports championship as we recently saw in Chicago and Montreal?

What is not hard to predict is that the nature of riots will change. Thirty years ago few rioters possessed handguns. Recently in Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Seattle, many of the rioters were armed and intended to kill police officers. In the past, seldom was there a group of people who expressly took advantage of the riotous conditions to prey on business establishments. In Los Angeles, however, youth gangs used the cover of riots to loot stores selling handguns while other rioters looted and burned stores owned and operated by Oriental merchants. In Miami and Los Angeles some of the rioter's behavior toward innocent bystanders was extraordinarily vicious even for a mob! It cannot be known for certain if the changes in the behavior of participants in civil disturbances will continue. It should give cause for some concern to officers trained to use a baton and plastic shield to protect themselves from the mob.

Trying to predict riotous behavior with any precision is difficult. Disturbances are not usually triggered by persons whose lives are filled with misery, hopelessness and poverty. Riots do not usually occur in the worst of times, but rather during a tide of rising expectations when people think things will be better. Some people become frustrated, if during this time, they feel they are being left behind. Their frustration can turn to rage. Typically, the disorder is triggered by a police action. An angry crowd gathers and efforts to either reason with the crowd or to disperse them fail. After that, raw emotions rule the disorder.

Obviously, a riot needs several ingredients before it can begin. First, there must be a large group of discontented people angered to the extent they will risk a great deal to satisfy their frustrations. Second, there must also be a group of people who are greedy and see the disorder as an opportunity to enrich themselves by looting unprotected stores. Third, if a riot is to sustain over two, three or four days there must be a group of persons who are dedicated to the continuance of disorder.

In Los Angeles and Las Vegas, this element was identified as members of youth gangs. Members of the gangs were using the situation to either further their criminal activities, or to confront the police in a guerrilla warfare situation. Continuance of riotous conditions may be individuals with political objectives as well.

The fundamental question to answer in trying to predict or anticipate riotous behavior is whether there are enough persons in each of the above categories in a city to fuel the conflagration. The numbers of people in the black and white underclass are growing. An overwhelming percentage of the underclass live in large metropolitan cities and are characterized by poverty, dependence on welfare, low work skills, high unemployment and extremely high rates of illegitimacy. Two-parent families are not the norm and the conditions that the underclass live in are marginal. All of the above factors are exacerbated by the presence of youth gangs, the economics of illicit drug distribution, the absence of good schools and churches, and a sense of community. The emotions that drive the underclass are fear, hopelessness, distrust of government (particularly police) and occasional rage.

As unemployment recedes and the problems in our schools, health care system and criminal justice system are addressed, it could be argued that expectations are rising. However, it is most likely the underclass will again be left behind in the struggle to improve their lives. Expect the frustrations of the underclass to increase. Occasionally their rage will flash into disorder. Whether others will take the opportunity to loot, burn and destroy will depend on police response and extremely good fortune.

High technology in radio communications, computers, radar, lasers and robotics has always been of interest to the law enforcement community. In the past 20 years we have successfully used technology in word processing, record keeping and forensic examination. The single biggest problem with emerging technology is that it is often oversold and misunderstood. Most of us are at the mercy of technocrats who suggest that technology will solve all of our problems in a particular area. In theory they may be correct. Quite often, though, they forget to consider the human factor. They forget we are the ones who must enter the data, use the technology on a daily basis and adapt the power of the technology to our problems. The FBI has found this to be painfully true with projects ranging from the Violent Crime Apprehension Program, NCIC 2000 and a host of criminal intelligence projects. Consequently, the Bureau has wasted large sums of money and is behind in the implementation of these projects. Most other large organizations have had similar experiences with high technology.

In the next five years, an enormous amount of high technology previously in the sole domain of the defense industry will become available to law enforcement. Defense contractors are reviewing their inventories and are trying to have some technology declassified for the law enforcement market.

Lasers, microwaves and fiber optics show promise for law enforcement applications. However, caution or prudence should be the our first concern when considering the purchase of high tech equipment. It is expensive and requires highly trained individuals for successful operation. If we do not factor in the cost of the training requirements the technology will not work well.

If properly used, technology can solve many law enforcement problems. If we buy technology before we think the entire problem through, we stand the risk of it not working, the loss of precious funds and less efficiency.

The shifting of responsibilities from the federal government to state and local government continues. The financial burden on state and local governments has increased dramatically over the past 20 years and will continue. Yet in many states, we face a taxpayer's revolt and calls for a reduction in governmental services. There is little question this trend will continue. Whether law enforcement operations at the state and local level will be affected depends on the financial condition of the jurisdiction. Needless to say, most of our large metropolitan police forces will face continued lean times.

If this matter is taken directly to the voters with a proposition that special taxes be levied just for law enforcement operations, then the chances of financial relief are significantly increased. Voters seem willing to pay a little extra for quality law enforcement.

When this technique cannot be used expect difficult times in the near-term future. The financial condition of suburban departments has been relatively good over the past decade. It is not expected these departments will face severe financial stress in the next five years or so. However, it can be expected that suburban departments will be forced to increase productivity and efficiency because budgets will remain relatively constant. State police and sheriff's departments will also face budget problems. Simply put, most states, forced to shoulder the burden of previous federal responsibilities must cut back on services where possible. Most likely, these cuts will be in the form of less aid to localities, fewer equipment purchases, diminished training programs and reduced health and retirement benefits.

Our rural departments, having always been under funded, will continue to feel the pinch of scarce resources. The concept of consolidation of police forces and functions will again find popularity as one way to deliver more effective law enforcement to rural areas. It is an idea whose time for additional discussion and debate is long overdue!

Of all the forces that will determine our future in the United States and Canada, the economy is the most significant. Our last recession did not hit all communities or states, but devastated such states as California, Massachusetts and Texas. How long our improving economy will last is not known and where the next down-turn will hit is also difficult to predict. Overall, economic conditions in North America are favorable and there are few signs of impending difficulties. But worldwide events such as a trade war could change the picture rapidly. The law enforcement future will be directly affected by the economy not only in terms of funding, but also in the nature of crime. Expect drug abuse to remain fairly constant. Economic crimes will show a slight increase. Fraud and computer crime will rise. Other crimes such as domestic violence, burglary, and larceny will continue to decline.

Changing times and technology have and will continue to exert tremendous pressure to flatten the traditional police organizational structure. It is obvious the traditional chain of command, or pyramid structure, needs to be streamlined to allow for faster response to organizational problems.

Now most law enforcement agencies are experimenting with new structures, particularly those who have embraced the concept of community based policing. This structure seems to be working well, giving evidence that organizational change can work. No model organizational structure has emerged. This is normal. It will take many more years of experimentation before we know what is the most efficient model. Expect this trend to continue as law enforcement organizations struggle to stay relevant in a society in which change continues at an incredible pace.

One disturbing aspect of the social conditions already outlined would be the necessity to create a specialized tactical unit to control behavior in the central cities. This unit will be highly trained, equipped with the best armament and technical equipment and be constantly mobile. I would expect the size of the unit to be anywhere from 60-100 officers, broken into six-man teams. Each team, dressed and armed for maximum psychological impact would travel the city in highly equipped vans. The objective of the unit would simply be to disperse, by whatever means necessary, street disturbances that might lead to additional violence or to effect arrests in areas off-limits to regular patrols.

This is not a new concept. It was used in a modified form in Detroit in the 1950s and is similar to the Field Force concepts developed by Miami-Dade in the 1980s. I have little doubt the unit would be effective in the short run. However, if not used with great care and discretion, it is possible that criminals could develop countermeasures that would endanger police officers. Force begets force. It may be the only way to reclaim the streets of the inner city, but it will lead to the division of police departments into two parts. One for regular work and one for combat. This might be divisive. While the mission is plausible and the technology is available to make the concept workable, it is a development that needs a great deal of thought and consideration before implementation. Public safety agencies would make this decision only under desperate conditions and only after reaching a community consensus that it is a last resort measure.

Currently the federal and many state governments have severe fiscal crises. Most major cities have the same problem. Money is tight. In the next five years funds for higher salaries and benefits will be scarce. It is not unrealistic to expect moves by government to restrict pension and health benefits while freezing salaries. On the other hand, public support for police has never been higher. If the issue is skillfully presented to the voters my guess is that police would be funded appropriately. If not done with skill, however, police organizations and management will clash over the issues.

During the past 10 years, the collaborative atmosphere developed between management and police organizations has been excellent and we have had few job actions. I expect this relationship will change over the issues of job stress and safety. I am hopeful union leaders are skillful enough to avoid recommending damaging job actions as a means to achieve reasonable objectives. There are better ways to obtain needed benefits than to betray our hard-earned public trust.

We are living in an "Alice in Wonderland" world where conventional wisdom has been rejected, scorned and reinvented. At times all of us wonder just what is reality, truth, or the proper way to get things done. It is a difficult world to live in for a law enforcement officer. We see the reality of the street and have some fledgling ideas of what is wrong. The wave of political correctness that has washed across our culture, however, forbids police and other social observers from telling it straight. Perhaps this inability to articulate our concerns is fortunate. North American, Western Europe, and the Pacific Rim nations have experienced extreme change in the past 40 years. We are moving from the Industrial Age to the Information Age.

As John Naisbitt pointed out a decade ago in Megatrends, we are living in the parenthesis between ages. When a society changes the way it earns a living, it is normal that the way we develop ideas, values and modify the culture is fiercely debated. While discomforting to those who would maintain the status quo, it is, nonetheless, the way a society works. Some traditional beliefs survive the debate, others are cast aside as new values emerge.

The times in which we live are tumultuous by nature. The changes are so complex it is little wonder people have difficulty in knowing right from wrong or what values to keep and which to reject or modify. It is a time that some people prosper, and some are left behind unable to cope with the changing work place. It is an environment in which drug and alcohol abuse flourish and the right and left wings of political and religious thought clash over how best to govern. It is also a time that traditional institutions have difficulty adapting to societal changes. It can be a time of war, revolution and domestic turmoil. It may well be that we will have difficult days and nights of terror. It would not be wise to say that it cannot happen in the United States particularly in light of recent events in the former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and the entire continent of Africa.

No one can accurately predict the future. What I have outlined may, or may not, prevail. We have difficult problems to solve. We have solved them before and survived difficult days. If we have the strength, we will solve our present problems. It will take time. Considering the complexity of the world in which we live, it takes a great deal of wisdom to be a social commentator these days. More wisdom than most of us in law enforcement have. It may, therefore, be most appropriate to bite our collective tongues and do the best we can to ensure others have a safe forum to express their opinions. Our job, in the near future, will be to preserve the rule of law to thwart those who prefer the rule of men. This is the best legacy law enforcement can leave our children and future generations.

The National Executive Institute Associates Leadership Bulletin editor is Edward J. Tully. He served with the FBI as a Special Agent from 1962 to 1993. He is presently the Executive Director of the National Executive Institute Associates and the Major City Chiefs. You can reach him via e-mail at tullye@aol.com or by writing to 308 Altoona Drive, Fredericksburg, Virginia 22401